Analysis: History offers some hope for the bear market blues

We’re officially halfway through 2022, and so far, well… let’s just say, if this year was a movie, that’s about the time I’d be storming out and demanding a refund. What kind of sick, morally depraved writers would come up with this garbage?

Anyway, in the spirit of taking the time to reflect on where we are and where we are going from here, my colleague Nicole Goodkind was kind enough to take a look at how Wall Street gate. Short answer: terribly. But the longer answer is more fun, so let’s go.

Here’s the deal: The first half of the year was the worst for the S&P 500, the broadest measure of US markets, in more than 50 years.

The index is down more than 20% for the year, after entering a bear market two weeks ago. The three main US indices – the Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 – ended this month and this quarter in the red.

Markets are easily troubled by uncertainty, and 2022 has been a messy queen of drama from the start, with three major events keeping investors on their toes:

  • Russia’s war on Ukraine (and all the supply-side shocks created for oil and commodities)
  • China’s Covid-19 lockdowns crippled manufacturers added more problems to global supply chains
  • And everyone’s favourite: inflation. The relentless rise in prices forced the Fed to switch to raising interest rates.

This unholy trinity of economic forces has made recession forecasting something of a national sport. Investors head for the exits: the S&P 500 has lost $8.2 trillion in total since the start of the year.

So yeah, it’s not good.

But hey, it’s almost the weekend and I want to see the bright side of things, so here’s a dose of optimism.

What we know from history is that the market always goes up. Ultimately.

And as Nicole notes, there is historically little correlation between the performance of the S&P 500 in the first and second half.

In 1970, for example, it fell 21% in the first six months and then rebounded to gain 27%.

Additionally, US stocks typically rise about 15% on average a year after landing in bearish territory. The last three bear markets have taken only four to five months to recoup losses.

Conclusion: hang on, friends.

NUMBER OF DAYS: 54%

Transactions thrive when markets are stable and businesses are doing well. When the mood drops, people get nervous, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in this bear market. Central banks around the world are raising interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and making new listings and mergers shine.

The number of global IPOs has fallen 54% so far this year compared to 2021, according to Dealogic data provided to my colleague Julia Horowitz. Mergers and acquisitions fell 25%.

RADIO SHACK TWITTER

It’s not unusual for a brand to hire a smart writer to build a bold or offbeat social media presence. Best-case scenario, you get an account like Wendy’s, which manages to deliver genuine customer service while playfully roasting competitors and clinging to memes.

But when RadioShack this week began broadcasting a stream of explicit, non-work-safe tweets, the internet was stunned. It’s honestly the only one I could find that could be put into Nightcap (and you all know how low our standards are).

Obviously you can google the rest if you’re curious, but I can save you some time by making sure they’re not particularly clever or funny, just vulgar.

“WHAT’s going on at TARNATION with the Radio Shack Twitter?????” one user tweeted. Has the account been hacked? Did one of those young social media writers get burned out and forget he was using his Twitter business?

No. Turns out the tech retail zombie of the 90s is turning to crypto, says my colleague Jordan Valinsky. And the obscene tweets were all part of a marketing ploy for the RadioShack Crypto platform.

It describes itself as a “100-year-old brand embedded in the global consciousness” that will “lead the way in blockchain technology.” The “new” RadioShack has its own crypto token called $RADIO, which is basically worthless.

*EYE ROLL*

Let the crypto bros turn a legacy of my childhood mall experience into a dumb scheme.

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