Josh Frydenberg pledges to fix the budget

Mr Frydenberg said the Liberal Party must remain a “big church” for moderates and conservatives, and that the Coalition could not win government if it lost up to six seats in the city center under the seat of the independent.

“It requires a bit of give and take,” he said, after distancing himself from Mr Morrison’s support for NSW Liberal candidate Katherine Deves’ comments about transgender children.

Bargain of raw materials

“So-called moderates need to understand that the issues that may resonate with their constituents don’t apply equally in other parts of the country.

“Similarly, those who can describe themselves as arch-conservatives need to be sensitive to how issues that matter to them play out in more moderate seats.”

Since last December’s budget update, the government has spent about $84 billion of the $190 billion generated by high commodity prices and strong job growth, including on the National Insurance Scheme. disability, care for the elderly and campaign promises.

Some economists have called the billions of dollars in cost-of-living subsidies ahead of the election inflationary, at a time when the RBA is raising interest rates and predicting inflation will hit 5.9%.

Pressed on the budget, Mr Frydenberg would not commit to spending cuts but said it would be important to boost bank revenues and the savings that could come from falling unemployment and high commodity prices raw.

“I think they [Treasury] will be very aware of the need to maintain fiscal discipline due to inflation,” he said.

“I think it’s important to move forward to bank these upgrades, especially given how cautious we have been on commodity prices.

“That’s potentially a $30 billion improvement over the next six months.”

Australia’s iron ore and coal exports could add $29.5 billion to the budget outcome over the next four years if soaring commodity prices continue through the end of September, according to a scenario analysis at the increase in the March 29 budget.

The faster decline in the unemployment rate to 4% – which the RBA now expects to fall to 3.6% by next year – will also bring big gains for the budget.

This means that the projected budget deficit of $80 billion could be cut in half and the maximum projected debt of $1.2 trillion would be lower.

Cautious approach

The budget continued the Coalition’s cautious approach to forecasting the price of major commodity exports. Iron ore and coal prices are expected to fall significantly to their long-term averages by the end of September.

Iron ore recently traded around US$130 a tonne, against speculation that it would gradually fall to US$55 by the end of September.

Thermal coal recently sold for more than $300 a ton, while the budget called for a drop to $60.

Metallurgical coal climbed above US$500 a tonne, well above the budget assumption that it would drop to US$130 by the end of September.

Mr Frydenberg said the main drivers of inflation were international factors, including soaring energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and supply chain blockages caused by the pandemic.

“China’s strict lockdown is going to exacerbate some of this supply chain disruption,” he said. “It will lead to higher prices.”

Asked why the government was lagging in national opinion polls despite having a low unemployment rate of 4%, Mr Frydenberg said: ‘The last two years have been extremely disruptive and frustrating for people.

“Not everyone would be happy with everything that happened. So that definitely plays into people’s intentions.

“In a good way, they understand that Australia is emerging from a pandemic with a lower death rate, higher vaccination rate and a stronger economy than other countries.

“For others, they have seen what has happened in recent years and can criticize the government about certain individual measures.”

Mr Frydenberg and Finance Minister Simon Birmingham have claimed Labor’s long-term spending bill could reach $302billion over 10 years, including so-called ‘nod and drop’ spending wink” for the States and interest groups to which he “left the door open” without a formal commitment.

This includes potential future foreign aid spending, higher unemployment benefit for job seekers, more generous subsidies for childcare beyond the initial phase, schools and hospitals.

Dr Chalmers said: “Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Simon Birmingham are desperately trying to distract from their cost of living crisis.

“The last time the Liberals were in opposition [2013]they published their costs two days before election day, and they did the same to the government.

‘We won’t get cop talks from this tired decade old government, which has racked up $1 trillion in debt with far from enough to show it and has nothing positive to say to Australians a few days before their vote.

“We have always said that we will publish our full costs in the usual way before the election, and we will.”

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